If you are finding that everything you read or hear about the television industry is as concerning as the telegraph messages that a young David Sarnoff was hearing in a Marconi receiving station at the end of Long Island on the evening of April 14, 1912, then trust us, Dear Friends, you are not alone. Each day seems to bring us more depressing news than the looming revelations for those unfortunate people who were ever in the vicinity of the late Jeffrey Epstein.

A few folks have asked why we have been doing this series about just who might consider some kind of corporate “hook-up” of their local television station groups in the weeks and months to come, and why we have framed it under the guise of a modern-day version of the old TV show, “The Dating Game.”

Obviously, the idea was to have a little bit of fun with the exercise. Additionally, the idea of making the convoluted dance of forming interpersonal relationships the basis for an entertaining primetime show was too irresistible, and television has been forever fascinated by it. From the fun innocence of “The Dating Game” in the 1960s to the not-too-subtle debauchery of “Love Island” today, the question of “Will they or won’t they” has always made for some memorable (and not-so-memorable) moments in television.

So let us return once again to asking the questions that everyone is wondering about in the soon-to-be-upon-us world of deregulation and subsequent open season for hunting deals in TV station acquisitions. Because much like on the Titanic on that fateful early morning of April 1912, everyone will be looking for a lifeboat, as the band will play on.

Just before we do, a reminder from our still-unhired legal department that what follows is pure speculation, based on the reading of tea leaves and listening to various sources of gossip. No actual financial advice is being given, and none of your money should be invested accordingly. Assuming you have any money to invest these days.

Couple Number Four – Some Network O&Os and somebody else?

If there were ever a station group that you might think would never be on the trading block, you’d probably say it was the owned and operated stations of any of the “big four” networks. These groups are the proverbial backbone of their respective networks, as well as being each network’s outlets in the largest local media markets. And while we don’t believe that these cash-producing engines are very likely to be up for sale in the very near future, there is at least one group of them that could be set adrift in the stormy seas that may lie ahead.

Most casual observers of the television business are surprised to first learn that the largest group of owned and operated stations is held by the newest of the four major TV networks.

Even though FOX didn’t come into being a network until 1986, it’s Fox Television Stations is the 5th largest group owner in the country, at least in terms of revenue and reach as of 2023 (the last year we could find complete data for.) Fox is only behind Nexstar, Gray, Tegna, and Sinclair in the largest groups ranking, using those metrics. The 18 markets where it owns stations gives it a reach of nearly 39% of the country’s television sets.

And despite the political leanings of the cable news network that also bears the same name, the FOX O&Os, as a group, are a well-run business, even if the quality of its stations is somewhat uneven overall. On the one hand, they have some very good stations in places like New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Tampa-St. Petersburg. But then there are the underwhelming stations in markets like Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Seattle to consider. Given the fact that the slimmer FOX network schedule allows these O&Os to program more hours of local news (especially in mornings) and that the network has invested heavily in sports coverage, the $2.5 billion that the FOX Television Stations did in 2023 revenue would seem to cement a place in the Murdoch family-owned holdings for the foreseeable future.

That leads us to the smallest of the network-owned station groups. The Disney-owned ABC O&Os are only in 8 markets in the country, and as such have the smallest footprint of the four networks. But no group dominates their local markets the way that the ABC Owned Stations do. Typically, #1 in local news across all time periods and they have been so for decades. The billion dollars or so that this asset contributes to the Disney financial picture is a pretty reliable source of revenue and CEO Bob Iger has reiterated his backing of the importance of ownership of the local stations on more than one occasion.

Even if some industry observers were making a big deal about some recent cutbacks at some ABC-owned stations, that just proves that even long-time successful local stations could stand to do some belt-tightening in the shrinking overall television marketplace. Nobody is immune to what is going on in the real world.

In terms of markets covered, the NBC Stations group (technically part of NBCUniversal Owned TV Stations) is actually the largest of the four networks, due to its ownership of both NBC and Telemundo stations. In total, there are 31 markets where an NBC or Telemundo-owned station operates, and in the 11 markets where both are owned, a developing strategy is underway to consolidate those operations into a single facility, particularly in news operations. One example of this is the recently completed massive new newsroom in the Comcast building at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in New York City, where WNBC and WNJU are now co-located. Given this one-two punch of having both English and Spanish-language local news and programming under one roof, it certainly appears that Comcast values the station group somewhat more than say the group cable networks it is setting adrift under the newly formed (and oddly named) Versant.

By process of elimination, you have likely jumped ahead of us and come to the fourth and final network-owned group in our considerations, and that would be the CBS-owned stations. Though this Paramount Global division is nearly the same size as the FOX group, with stations in 18 of the nation’s markets, it has been saddled for some time with having the weakest-performing stations in the largest of each of those markets, at least in terms of audience ratings for local news and programming. Even with that history, the CBS Stations have made a notable contribution to the Paramount Global bottom line.

But oddly enough, it may be that the very ownership of those stations that proves to be the biggest obstacle in the proposed multi-billion-dollar merger of Paramount Global and would-be acquiring company Skydance Media. Yes, there was the whole ridiculous lawsuit by the now-President, then-Candidate, Donald Trump against the network and its venerable “60 Minutes” newsmagazine for perceived editorial malfeasance. Rather than fight in court, Paramount’s chief owner, Shari Redstone, settled for the sum of $16 million and maybe some other concessions to come from the new owner. (There is still no clear answer on what those terms might be.)

The thing now gumming up the works is that the Brendan Carr-chaired FCC has to approve the transfer of the CBS-owned television station licenses from Paramount Global to Skydance. Everyone believes that it is likely to happen, even if there has been no public indication that the Commission is ready to do so, given its own review of the alleged sins CBS committed, which was broadcast over those local stations.

Former CBS News and Stations boss Wendy McMahon was ousted in the whole mess at “60 Minutes,” and by all accounts, she is not being replaced. The stations group has been through a painful series of cuts and reorganizations, even as it is trying to spin up a news operation from scratch in Atlanta, where the network is moving the affiliation from Gray’s WANF to CBS-owned WVEU on Channel 69, which many Atlantans have been blissfully unaware of until recently.

At some point in this convoluted process, one has to wonder if the CBS Stations become too much of a liability? Redstone and company definitely want to unload Paramount Global to Skydance. However, a clock is ticking on consummating the deal. In all fairness, Skydance really wants to acquire the movie and networks side of the Paramount business more than it wants to be a local station operator. (To be sure, everyone involved will say anything but that as being the case.) But it doesn’t take a lot of vision to see that at some point in this long voyage, the CBS Stations become more of a stuck anchor in the mud–and someone is going to think about cutting the chain that’s keeping this vessel stuck on the high seas, rather than in the safe harbor of being a done deal.

Which recalls the old joke about the two happiest days in a boat owner’s life? The day you buy the boat is the first. The day you sell it is the second. And as many boat owners will tell you, it’s usually the better of the two.

We’ll be here on the dock, with our boat shoes on, a cold beverage in hand, and a pair of well-worn shades on as we watch the horizon for the ships to come in. In the meantime, please take a moment from your busy day and click the subscribe link at the top of this webpage. It is cheaper than the cold beverage we crave, as in being absolutely, positively free. 

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